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JPY
Let’s start with the Japanese Yen, where it surprises me to still see many bullish calls (xxx/jpy bearish), more or less from what I recon that it has lost so much value so now it must be time for it to turn around soon.

Well, look at the Monthly JPY basket chart above, does it look bullish to you? Of course, there will be days when the Yen seems to have found its mojo again, but from what I can see that’s just opportunities to sell the JPY and will be for some time still.

EUR
I have been positively surprised by the Euro’s resilience, after I thought it was done with the strong rejection back in April. Well, after a month of indecision (doji) we saw it push higher once again and to a new high. Now we have one of those rejections once again in November, not as strong as we seen before, but it came in response to a try pushing outside of the channel it started to build back in 2012.

It is possible that we at least see a pause here as we have almost an exactly identical length of the last 2 waves higher across the channel. At the same time, I have to admit I’m not 100% confident in my triangle count above justifying a reversal lower towards the other side of the channel. The count below, with a running flat as wave B is indeed a strong contender. That would imply a continuation higher still, maybe to test the highs from back in 2009.

NZD
The Kiwi had an interesting week bringing November to a conclusion and while this Hammer candle isn’t as powerful in sight as the one from April, it comes together with another powerful ingredient thrown in by RBNZ.

A probable end of cycle for rate cuts as a rocket engine makes it very probably that we will see NZD go much higher from here. Then it doesn’t mater if it is wave I & II we have as the framing of major high and low, it can as well be cycle was A & B, as the next wave is likely to stretch beyond that as time goes by. Just give it some time and position accordingly.

AUD
The Aussie is in a somewhat similar situation as the Kiwi, in that the RBA also seems to have thrown their cut ideas on the couch. Of course, it’s early days still and for both of these so called risk currencies to get real legs a general improvement in the risk sentiment is needed.

This can be seen in that there is still some resistance left for AUD to push through, before it can get back into a larger pitchfork channel that could guide it higher.

CAD
The Loonie may be on its way to steer free of an Ending Diagonal but it’s still not clear sailing just yet.

If we get a better risk sentiment it will certainly be positives also for CAD, but at the same time, its major correlating asset class Oil seems to be in trouble, medium to longer term at least and that may drag it down to test the bottom once again. No, CAD doesn’t look like an interesting play here.

GBP
Pound Sterling has been struggling with the Brexit referendum resistance for most of the year, even if little has been said about it on the wire, where the finger instead has been pointed to the UK Labour government and the Chancellor Reeves and here budget as major culprits.

The Basket chart show it as it is, without any doubt. Interestingly, GBP was struggling against a lot of head wind during November, much in fearful anticipation of the waiting autumn budget. Now that’s in the past and once again it has shown that fear has no real meaning and value, and should be challenged/faded. All about timing, of course.

So, despite all fears, Sterling hasn’t collapsed but instead showed up strong knocking on the door once again, and maybe maybe it is time for the next phase as we approach the end of the year.

CHF
The Swiss Franc ended November by closing out its ninth (9) strait green month - an impressive performance and a voice on the X-platform expressed it quite elegantly be saying that CHF had reached sentience. Although very describing also meant somewhat ironically I assume, but also true. The Swissy has reached well beyond worldly existence lost in the other sphere of Investormania.

Nevertheless, this is also an Evening Star candle pattern top and while I’m very careful with not taking out something in advance, I think it’s high time for CHF to come back down to Earth.

USD
I have already posted DXY as part of my earlier Market Update but will still post the USD Basket here as well, with a warning.

It’s quite possible this count is wrong as I just changed it by replacing V with III on the Oct-22 high, basically because what has played out since that high doesn’t give me the impression as the start of a reversal lower. After all, this chart is still in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows and as long as the March-21 low hasn’t been broken that remains the case.

I have to give it more though as it should probably be labeled differently and maybe not in 5 waves at all. Bottom line, this is not DXY, which is heavily Euro weighted, but I think it would make sense if it came down to tested the channel bottom here as well.

BTW, if you don’t do so already, you should follow me on X @vikingew for more spontaneously posted updates of both FX and other instrument’s charts.

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DXY & USD Basket
I have explained in the past, the difference between the DXY and the USD basket, so won’t go into that once again. In short though, they are different but similar and sometimes they may bring confluence, other times a signal of warning etc. as it’s a bit like looking at the same painting but from different angles.

The USD Basket often offers an alternative count compared to the DXY, which can be seen in the Monthly charts above and below. While I have plotted three different paths for the Basket above, I think the one suggesting a triangle is the most likely to play out. I base that partly from strong performance during Sep-Oct, in response to a Double Bottom reversal with the July candle.

Partly, I also hold this view based on the USD’s interaction with the Ichimoku cloud, both in a historical and present context, plus that the price action since the Oct-22 high has been symmetrically contracting. From this I would say, there is a lot pointing to that the USD may have bottomed already.

What makes me hesitant in that view, however, is Powell’s imposed “hawkishness” at last FOMC presser, which I see as absolutely nonsense and bollocks because he had and still has no idea there things reside due to lack of data, so what he said was nothing more than a play of words, to say “we are data dependent and sets rate meeting to meeting” in a more fancy way. That’s why I think the greenback could still go much lower indeed.

We can also see more support for this idea in the Monthly DXY chart, which in some sense is a contradiction to the Basket as here the resistance above is more accentuated, compared to the support below in the basket.

A lot of this has to do with the Euro, of course, as it constitutes some 57% of the index, plus another 13% for the Yen and the reason why the DXY still has such a big sway on the greenback, is because those currencies are traded with a much higher liquidity than the others. So where does it leave us? Well, no one can look into the future and tell with higher certainty what will happen, but short term there is at least an indication here of a stronger USD generally, until it hits the resistance zones marked on both these charts. Of course, we need to look at the individual pairs for more detail and to see where the best opportunities may wait.

AUDUSD
As I have pointed out several times in the past, AUD is not included in the DXY index, which is the reason why this pair still can be bullish while DXY pushing higher at the same time. So there is no help to get from that side.

The Monthly chart for the pair also seems to be a bit inconclusive, as we have two equally sized candle bodies, with wicks pointing in the “wrong” direction based on the candle color and it’s all trapped between 2 diagonally sloping trendlines.

We have a RBA meeting on Tuesday, which may have the sway to break this deadlock and my thinking here is… The RBA is expected to hold rates, and may even talk hawkish but that could be just what’s expected so we could get a shorter term sell-off here, maybe not as deep as I drew it on the chart as that’s more of a maximum level for support as longer term I expect the pair to go higher.

EURUSD
Last week looking at this pair I was expecting a final wave 5 of (C) to complete as an Ending Diagonal, but that didn’t transpire as instead the pair sold off in response to Powell and FOMC. The Monthly chart below shows the consequences of that.

In fact, it was hinted at already with Septembers candle, which was a clear rejection of a continues move higher. Now I have to say that I’m not absolutely sure about this sell-off being it, because I don’t buy into Powell’s “hawkishness”, not at all. He “made it” sound hawkish but in reality, based on that he hasn’t got any more data than anyone else, it just means “we set rates meeting to meeting, as always, not pre-comitting as always”

However, with or without the Fed’s impact on the greenback, it’s still possible to count the last move up in 5 waves. Having said that, though, what has followed thereafter is not a clear cut impulsive move looking at the Daily timeframe but it’s not uncommon that wave 1 is tentative, not at all. Thus my view is to wait to see if 1.14 will be tested and if it holds or not, of if we will see a new impulsive move high of if it can be identified as a correction.

GBPUSD
October didn’t do any good to the Pound, and while that has underpinned the bearish move in this pair, it has also arrived at what could or should be strong support. The UK budget later in November will have impact here and while there is still room to the downside I think it’s limited as the overall pattern here still points higher, in due time.

However, near term and from a technical perspective, it doesn’t look totally hopeless for Sterling. Simply, the move lower from the high hasn’t been impulsive directly but played out in waves of three. Originally, I was thinking a triangle here, but that was invalidated as price moved below wave a

It still looks as if it could be wave 4 though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we will see a move higher next into wave 5 or (1), and then there will be a somewhat deeper correction, possibly sharp as often is the case with wave 2.

USDCAD
The Monthly USDCAD chart has a nice corrective structure, as it climbs in a Pitchfork channel.

Eventually, I think this will end in the 1.60-65 area, if the channel stretches out all the way, but there is room for a deeper correction towards 1.35 first, before the final move higher.

The ongoing diagonal drawn on the weekly chart, may have completed, despite the strong recovery last week, as that type of “hanging man” candle usually isn’t bullish at all, but no rule without exception. In short, no one knows what will happen next week, for sure.

USDCHF
Last week I aired the idea that wave 5 and a bottom may be in place for this pair and while it’s not confirmed, yet, nothing has transpired against it so far.

The monthly chart below can’t give a decisive answer about it, of course as technically, this pair is still in a strong down trend on this time frame.

There are signs, though, we would like to see in case there is a reversal playing out. Like the small bodied candle with a deep wick on the downside, even if the somewhat shorter wick on top counter that a tad. That was September though and October then trumped that wick, even if the close didn’t come above. If price moves above next, but more so above the next red candle, then we certainly can start to talk about a reversal.

USDJPY
I don’t really has to say much here and th etext is appraoching email max anyway. The monthly chart is clear and for more about the JPY read my latest FX-Basket Update #29

Of course, nothing moves in a strait line, not even the Yen, and neither of the two involved will be happy with this but… this is the “reflecting fundamentals” that BOJ often talks about.

AUD FX-Basket
It’s a big tricky to get a clear and harmonious count, even on the Daily time frame, due to the steep climbing and shallow pullbacks, not even 38.2% here. The move from the April low is strong and impulsive, though, and the shallow retracements is probably just a sign of bullishness.

I think it’s still in the first major wave though and not really ready for a long term buy just yet as it still has a few things to prove, but is there potential here? Oh yeah.

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The weekly chart reveals more of this potential and also levels that need to be concurred for a sustained move higher. The most major of these levels are the mid correction high (X) and then of course the neckline of a potential Inverted H&S pattern.

For that to be possible, the AUD to use the newly acquired fuel to break out of the corrective channel and back into a huge Pitchfork channel anchored in the 2008 low.

AUDCHF
This pair may be the one with the greatest potential for gains, but it may also be the riskiest pair to bet on, simply due the Swiss Franc’s track record.

If the larger pattern down here, is an ABC or a 5 waves move, doesn’t really matter. What matters is whether the low is in or not and I see a potential for that through the count above. It’s one possible count, though, and I’d like to stress that.

The challenge is obvious, to break above wave (1) and out of the channel formed by the last sub wave down. However, ahead of that we have a cluster of highs creating a 3 peaks formation, making up the obvious resistance ahead.

Does the Aussie have in the tank what’s required to get above that mountain range? If we look at the 4h chart and use it as a fuel gauge, it does seem as a possibility at least, if the waves continue to fall their designed pattern.

However, against CHF it may not be enough with inflation data to make it there, some help from the Trump/Xi meeting may also be required or let’s put it the other way around. If that meeting were to somehow be a failure, it wouldn’t just have a negative impact on AUD but also encourage the CHF bulls.

AUDJPY
I don’t feel absolute certain about this count, not so much because of AUD but because of the current dealings between US and Japan, so I would strongly suggest to wait for the BOJ meeting first of all. That aside though, there is still large upside potential in the pair, but it may come with a somewhat deeper pullback first.

Looking at the Daily chart there are indeed a couple different ways to count the lingering and ongoing sub waves of wave (5), but either way the most prominent direction seems to be upwards, but one of them may offer more of a potential pullback first.

If you have been following me for a while, you should know that I’m very bearish the Yen going forward, but of course, nothing moves in a strait line.

AUDUSD
Not really much to say here, just that as long as the pair is below 0.6942, I can’t really be long term bullish here, but there is a lot that points towards a potential test of that level.

Particularly what makes me cautious on this pair, is the shape of the structure from the bottom up. It may be a Leading Diagonal, but I miss a deeper retracement that is often seen with this pattern, especially if it is meant to go far higher. Then of course, I’m short term bearish but long term bullish on USD, so there is that as well.

AUDEUR
This is an interesting pair, but also noticeable is that it hasn’t produces a clear 5 wave pattern on the weekly chart across many years - in neither direction - except for two contracting diagonals favoring the Aussie.

The last wave, anchored in the 2022 low, has also produced only 3 waves, so far, and while I can count it to still lacking a last wave to the upside that wouldn't change anything in that respect. The channel basically confirms that it looks like and probably is a correction as another wave higher would just complete 5 waves in wave (C).

Before that happens, if it happens, there is still room for more downside to somewhere between 1.72-1.74

GBPAUD
I don’t really have a view on this pair, because while AUD appears strong currently and GBP weak, both mainly due to CPI data, the structure isn’t in a clear cut support of any of them. To count it as 5 waves up also doesn’t feel clear cut, while a WXY combination indeed looks much cleaner, although not really supported by current developments.

So I will leave it at that.

AUDNZD
A look at the Aussie wouldn’t be complete without including this pair as well. I have to admit, though, I don’t quite know how to count that sideways price action that has been ongoing for the last 10 years. It’s a correction alright, I think we can agree on that, but is that really wave 5 of C back in 2015?

Five waves down fits with the structure, but then we had another lower low in 2020, but I can’t for my life count 5 valid waves down to make it 5 of C instead, so… I will just leave it at that and conclude, EW isn’t a universal solution to everything. It’s a range though, currently with a double top, to be either a triple top or a breakout if the current attempt succeeds.

So far it has been unsuccessful and there has indeed been a few daily attempts during October. For the break to succeed a (Daily but preferably Weekly) close above 1.14905 is needed and we are not quite there yet.

As a closing side note, yes I do have several counts of the 10+ years structure above, but see no point in showing them here. It’s simply a ranging correction and we are waiting for the break, and if not, back down.

DXY
The US Dollar Index had a relatively good week but in reality, it was just closing where it open the week before. Indeed, it was the second week i a row we saw an inside candle i.e. price action was contained inside the range of the previous one.

So at large, not much has changed with the USD and it probably won’t ahead of Wednesday’s FED meeting and then Trump/Xi on Thursday. However, we already have some news hints regarding where the US/China story is going and if it lives up to the rumor it should benefit US and USD in the long run, but likely weaken the latter short term (except for against the Yen and possibly CHF) as risk is likely to suck up the first sugar rush.

AUDUSD
As you may know, AUD is not included in the DXY Index, so despite the latter was up last week so was the former, and the leaked US/China news last night has just underpinned that move higher in the pair, starting this week.

I have added an extra trendline on this chart, to show where trouble may show up if hesitation creeps in to the Aussie’s prospects.

It’s a bit tricky to count this structure from the bottom up, if it is seen in 5 waves, but a Leading Diagonal as wave (1) is the best choice imo based on how things look right now. Some kind of expanding diagonal could also be the case but there is not enough in place to make that call now.

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Then of course, this things doesn’t play out as though, things go south in other words, then a corrective count is easy to attach to a structure like this. But just because it could be done, doesn’t mean it will be the right answer in the end, and right now things look promising for all so called risk currencies.

EURUSD
Not much ground was won or lost here last week, but the structure seems to miss the last wave of and Ending Diagonal completing wave 5 and as it seems the larger structure as a whole.

I wouldn’t dare to make a call, at this stage, where it may land in the end but anything between 1.19 and 1.25 seems possible although I think 1.20 to 1.22 have the best odds. Basically, it’s hard to judge what impact a favorable outcome of US/China talks will have on this pair, but as said earlier I think it will favor USD more in the long run.

That doesn’t exclude though, that USD bulls may be invigorated and throws wood on the fire, for a while…

GBPUSD
I warned last week about a possible Alt# (Alternative count) with wave 3 at the high and despite the pair was retreating last week, it did so in a corrective fashion and I now deem that count to be the more likely one to come true.

It doesn’t mean it’s all plain sailing here for the Pound, or elsewhere for the matter, but I thing the current changes in the geopolitical and trade environment will be more of a positive for the Pound, in relative terms.

USDCAD
This pair has become a real clown show and will probably not change for some time as the big kids make it out in the sand pit, but it hasn’t changed the bigger picture in any way.

Still on track for a larger ABC correction here where the Loonie most likely being the one taking most beating (together with the Yen but for other reasons) short term.

USDCHF
Remember the question mark (?) I left at the bottom nudge of last weeks chart, label it as a possible Alt# Primary wave 5 of cycle C? Of course, noting is confirmed yet and CHF bulls are always the hardest to convince of letting go, but I’ll stick out my nose already here and say “it’s it, the bottom is in”.

Ok, that may be more of a theatrical play and nothing I would or will trade on, and neither should you, but I have said it before the CHF has eaten so much crap the last year(s), more than its body is built to hold, and can crack any day now. It just need the right catalyst and the thickheaded CHF bulls are likely to contribute the coming (explosive) move as well as they may try to hold on to their lost cause.

Alright, that may have been something of a word salad, so let me put it this way - CHF is not Gold but it has basically been acting as if.

USDJPY
I will present you with 2 different charts/counts here. First the one I gave you in weekly format last week, but now in Daily time frame and zooming in on the ongoing contracting triangle structure.

That count is pretty much intact as it stands, but it builds on an anchoring of the upper trendline at the top, which is a point not really included in the triangle pattern. It’s just common to do this as it tend to setup a natural resistance where wave D may bounce back.

However, in the final triangle structure, the upper trendline will rest on wave B & D and if we do this trick there is already a cont that can be seen as complete. As the latest US/China news is likely to underpin the risk sentiment and it’s currency advocates, it will likewise also become an anchor dragging down the safe haven currencies, in due time.

Right now there is a battle to overtake the 153.276 high on the left, and so far it holds. Indeed, it should as there are no real confirmed news yet about US/China and more so, the upcoming FED meeting, and BOJ, are dark horses, not running wild but containing price.

USDCNH
It will be very interesting to watch USD vs the Yuan going forward, and honestly I have no idea how a US/China trade truce (or even more) will impact the pair, but I drew up a weekly count resting on the 2014 low, which give something of a megaphone pattern, or an expanding triangle if you like but I don’t count it as such because the waves don’t fit.

With all the overlaps, it should be counted as a corrective pattern though and currently a WXY combination seems to be the best choice. Guess I will come back to this.

When we look at the DXY, the US Dollar Index, we like to think of it as a strength indicator for the currency, but is that really the case and a proper way to approach it?In this post I will mainly stick to Weekly charts examining the DXY and the most prominent USD-pairs to see what may aspire ahead.

The DXY chart has been in an uptrend mining out a channel since it found a bottom back in 2008 and even if it has been in ups and downs, the dominant move has been upwards. At the moment a correction in 3 waves (so far) is tracing out and we are at a crucial level at the bottom of said channel.

One could expect a bounce here, on purely technical grounds, but… even if we have seen some tries the last weeks, price action hasn’t been clear cut for impulsive moves in either direction. The Daily chart shows this with grater clarity.

The low back in July could have been the ends of 5 waves down and a completion of wave C of (B), but… the following then came about in only 3 waves, which then as followed by a new (and standing) low, marked by a circle in the chart. The problem, though, is that point isn’t easily reached by a count to five and I was pounding my head for some time before landing at the count above.

The bottom line is that it leaves room for more downside still to come, which makes sense as it has not only fallen below strong and many times tested support around the 100 line, it has also made several failed attempts to break back above it.

So where does this leave the Buck in the bigger picture against other currencies? Some more downside near term but then a likely surge to the upper side of the channel and making a double top against the 2001 high around 121 or so.

AUDUSD

It should be noted that the Aussie aka AUD isn’t included in the DXY Index, so an extended move higher in this pair shouldn’t come as a surprise - no matter what the DXY decides to do. So far we haven’t seen the same impulsive action as we saw back in 2020 and before the 0.6942 level has been claimed it remains an open question whether the correction has completed or not.

However, I’d say it’s about 70/30 in favor even if we were to see one more pullback into testing the diagonal trend line. We will have to see what next week brings but clearly a candidate for a future ride.

EURUSD

The Euro is about 56% of the DXY, so if it is anywhere a surge higher in the latter is to be seen, it would be in this pair. Technically, the move we seen from the low has been in 3 waves, but wave (A) & (C) are also almost identical in length. A reversal from here would make sense on that ground, but from a look at the top part of the structure I would expect one more high first though. Thus, 1.20 could probably be a good short level - if the evidence of a reversal shows up.

GBPUSD

The Pound is in the DXY, but not a major part. This pair has ample room to go higher, maybe even to reach 1.50 but we are probably to see a pullback first, deeper into wave (2). The Economic picture for the UK looks gloomy and may have some, at least short term impact, but at the end of the day the technical picture tends to triumph over fundamentals and maybe the UK budget in November will be well met.

USDCAD

A wacky pair that almost lives a life of its own and the 9% included in the DXY doesn’t leave much of an imprint. The price action since the 2016 high is odd with higher highs and lower lows, but also clearly a correction. Looking at the structure through the eyes of Elliott wave, it seems to point towards another higher high but a third wave lower first is also likely.

USDCHF

With only 3.6% as a part of DXY, we should look there for guidance in this pair. Nevertheless, the corrective structure is pretty clear and while I expect the strong move higher (as in DXY) there seems to be room for 0.75-.76 or so to the downside first.

USDJPY

Last out, the widow maker of short addicts. The chart here speaks pretty well on it’s own without a need to add too many words. So let me just say that I think we may see a triangle here in wave IV, but if it for some reason loose its manner and trips overboard (below 140) a journey closer to 130 should be expected.

It wouldn’t null the fate of the Japanese Yen’s end goal though, which now seems to be somewhere around 200 or so.

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I’ll start with honoring a new subscriber request, taking a look at the Singapore Dollar / Swedish Krona pair, better known as SGDSEK. In fact, this is a pair I have never looked at before, so I thought it would be interesting to take this top down, starting from the Monthly TF and later also looking at the Basket charts.

The above chart count is one possible way to count this structure and below is another, which basically is the same count but where I simply ignore the sudden spike down on the chart.

The reason to discard it is that it probably is a technical glitch, but you can never know for sure. At the date, 23 Aug 2010, there were a hostage situation in Manila, causing the Philippine Stock Exchange to drop, which possibly could have caused this although I’m doubtful.

Whatever, the more important “message” of the charts is that despite we can see an uptrend since the Dec 2004 low, it has been corrective marked by repeated overlaps in the structure. The structural picture is repeated in the SGD Basket chart below.

The above is not a complete count really but just to show how little “impulsive” price action (marked by yellow/orange) there really is in the structure and they all fits in with being C-waves - except for the last one during 2021 possibly.

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Indeed, to some extent it reminds of CHF and maybe SGD is something of an Asian Safe Haven but I don’t have much experience with it so don’t know for sure. The SEK below looks quite different though and well here we know it’s not a question of a Safe Haven, but quite the opposite.

Down trend for sure and a few quite impulsive moves but is it also an Ending Diagonal down at the bottom? It can be, which would be a sign of a possible reversal. So far, there are only 3 waves to count in the other direction though but it looks impulsive. So far…

If not an ED, it still pans out to a corrective structure, that may or not have completed, depending on if a proper 5 waves structure can be accomplished or not. So far it looks good with an impulsive break of the first structure high on the other side and the downwards sloping trend line. However, while that’s good news for SEK it’s merely an indication that something might be coming and for that to happen, the higher structure high needs to be broken and preferably in 5 waves.

A rejection at that level could mean just another 3 waves structure being put in place with price turfing lower again. Okay, with that background in place, let’s look at the more immediate price picture on the Daily SGDSEK chart.

First of all (before looking at count), we have a Double Top and it has been confirmed. Price then tried to break higher, above the confirmation level, but was rejected at 38.2% Fib. This is bearish.

As for the EW count, a 5 waves impulsing structure may be under way, but it’s not quite there yet as price needs to break below marked wave 3. Wave 1 is a bit zaggy and probably wouldn’t make it into an text book example, but this is nothing uncommon in a live chart when it comes to wave 1.

However, it’s also a warning that it could end up to merely be a wave A instead and that’s why we need that break below 3 or it will become C. I do expect this to happen, but in any case, I wouldn’t take a position here, unless scalping possible.

On a closer look at the lower structure, wave 4 is a solid wxy combination and noting to complain about regarding the so far 4 waves down in what to become wave 5 - if all goes according to plan. The base of this is wave 3 though, which is a beautiful impulse, perfectly matching what we see in the SEK basket chart.

Now, I don’t say you cant trade it here, if you would like to bet on that last wave pushing down, or a counter trend rise into the end of 2026, but the big and premium trade is after a break higher around the level of wave 4 - but only if it happens in 3 wave, and only if wave 3 low is broken first.

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I have already covered the DXY here so won’t tough on that one again. BTW, if you don’t already follow me on X I suggest you do as most “in-between” followups will take place there.

EURUSD

Friday’s sell-off was massive, but was it impulsive? I’d argue it wasn’t but I’m probably in a minority there, but of course that depends on by what standard you measure an impulse. At some (time frame) level it probably was, so let’s start with Daily to see.

An impressive Friday candle, no doubt but apart from the bearish divergence 1 July high, there is one small detail, maybe not easily spotted, that may signal something. The candle didn’t close on the high as it retreated to leave a tiny but although a pin - and the candle closed below Monday’s low. It also closed below a series of bodies from the week 14-18 July. It’s too early to tell how much this means if anything, but it should be noted. On the Daily level, despite the strong candle, this is clearly no impulse.

On 4h (above) still no impulse according to my definition (and I will layout my definition below) even if it’s closer but "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades", not in trading. So far, it’s simply just a 3 waves correction and the impulse is still to the downside. So, better luck on 1h?

Not really, it’s still only 3 waves up, even if I were to place wave (v) on the very low, which is one possibility making (v) more of a Ending Diagonal. That’s not my first choice though. For this to become an impulse, price would have to surpass 1.17704 and while I don’t say it’s impossible, I don’t think it’s likely.

Bears are likely to come in, and probably in force, between 1.1610-1.1670, I know I will unless the character of price action speaks against it. Let’s have a look at weekly instead…

… and we can see there has been no damage done whatsoever. The week is solidly painted in red. Yes, price closed above the spinning to low from 2 weeks ago, arguably looking as a false break, but the same can be said about the previous weeks break above the same candle. Currently price is just inside the span of that candle, but above previous (winning) week’s open and while this isn’t a straightforward will for the Bears, it’s certainly not a loss either.

The pressure is still to the downside and we shouldn’t forget that pin is solely from Friday and I generally don’t trust Friday price moves. Market can easily have a rethink over the weekend and it wouldn’t surprise me here.

AUDUSD

I’m not quite sure how to count this clearly corrective structure, rounding of the highs up here but if we return to Friday first, it’s clear that Aussie while gaining was second to none behind, compared to the Euro.

Now, it wouldn’t surprise me if that will upset the boys in the land of Down Under and that we could see it claw back some here during the Asia session. That’s not an guaranty though, as they tend to be rather smart and may realize that the USD is far from dead, nor is the US economy.

This with the tariffs, and Trumps general unruly and shameless behaviour have caused a lot of noise, which some try to push as something negative, which is true, but not an negative when it comes to the US economy, growth etc. because everyone is using an old yardstick for success to measure new circumstances.

Nevertheless, we can see that last week wasn’t much of a success for AUD versus USD and there is nothing new so far pointing an another direction.

NZDUSD

Lets’ just quickly look at this one as well, to confirm that it got even less out of Friday’s big USD collapse.

I don’t even bother to count it here as I have no interest in this pair right now.

GBPUSD

Not even Pound Sterling got away with much from Friday’s break down of the US Dollar and economy, probably because it wasn’t really, a break down.

In fact, if our i-net connection had broken down and we just saw the chart later, there is nothing sensational at all, just a pure reasonable technical reaction to support on the daily level. That’s why I don’t really bother about what took place on Friday, as it will be a parenthesis regarding were price will go in the future. Like most individual news and and data.

Taking a step back to get perspective, and in line with my stubborn GBP bullishness, I see further gains in this pair, much in contrast to other xxx/USD, but only after a correction down to the 1.27-28 level.

USDCAD

This may be the most difficult USD pair to judge atm, because if there is one currency that would be able to get on to of the USD, it’s CAD - as supported by a nice decline into what seems to aiming for 5 waves. Although, the structure is indeed a bit ambiguous to read and may already be completed.

It looks like a perfect wave (4) but could as well be a running flat as a wave (2), even if they aren’t that common in that position. So I’d simply leave this one up to more data to show its colors.

USDCHF

The Swissy was, next to EUR, one of few that really scored on the NFP miss, but show me one sh!t party where CHF hasn’t invited itself to use a Machete cutting the tart.

Of course, the Bulls from Bern had been gruesomely humiliated by the Silicon Valley Beach Boys earlier in the week so they weren’t late to break in on the offer. So will this sustain as we go into the new week? I’m not so sure but this sure makes for a decent wave (4) having missed invalidation with just a nudge.

Still, we are far from there yet and the divergence on the low is non-disputable, so will see were this goes but if there is anyone that has the wits and means to threaten the King it’s the Boys from Bern, maybe.

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The reason for this is that no matter how you turn and twist thing, the USD is still King and one of the most important indicator also for the rest of market. On top of that, the DXY chart looks very interesting right now, especially in the light of the upcoming week’s events.

While it’s tricky to have a conviction on the USD right now, with both FOMC and NFP setting up expectations to be merged with the ones from this new deal. As if that wasn’t enough, End of Month flows are also something that has the power to push price around. Still, I am pretty convinced the weight if higher for yet one more low in the DXY and the reason simply falls back on the EW count.

To see it, a step down to the daily chart is needed, where this count with an Ending Diagonal makes most sense to me, which implies that one more low is coming, and probably soon. There is however an alternative with a lower wave (3) and a possible wave (5) as a bottom in place, but… that last wave down is spoiled with overlaps and invalid according to the rules as certainly doesn’t look like a diagonal.

Nevertheless, this doesn’t exclude the possibility of the bottom to be in, it just makes it less likely, as it wouldn’t be the first time a wave 5 misbehaves. It just isn’t that common. WE have a somewhat similar situation also in the USD Basket chart.

Where several overlaps, seen on the daily chart above, makes it difficult to determine what the count really is, which means there is no way to know until the low is confirmed or taken out. In DXY that level is the 12 May high close to 102, while in the Basket is around 100.

Where does it leave EURUSD then? Well, the count looks pretty clear for more upside to follow, either strait from here or after a pullback down to the area of the near by low. My odds are more to the former rather than the latter, due to the deal, but... the fallout may not be immediate due to the other reasons mentioned above (FOMV, NFP & EoM flows).

The sticking point is more whether the larger degree wave from the bottom is in 3 or 5 waves. If the former, price is likely to stop short of 1.20 but if the latter then 1.25 or even higher is possible.

As of now, there is no clear indication of which path the pair will choose, as price is looked between the centre line of a Pitchfork channel and the roof of a parallel channel. A break above the latter or below the former would be a clear signal of intention and a daily- or even better a weekly close a commitment.

While the USD seems to come up short against the EUR, the situation looks better with the Aussie. The AUDUSD pair is still correcting the impulsive move in 2020-21 and while is has been grinding higher the last months the Aussie performance has been well short of satisfaction.

This is likely to result in a breakdown towards the last low from April, with potential to go all the way to test the 2020 low. A sudden change and break above the multi year trendline from 2021 could change that and eventually I’m convinced that will happen.

I doubt we are there though, but if the tariff trauma is flushed out of markets as the Aug 1 deadline and effects vanish, it could give the Aussie unexpected and sudden wings. Standing against it though is a technical pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which means that as long as 0.69422 isn’t concurred, the trend remains down.

I think USDCHF is very close to a bottom and it could indeed already be in place.

However, the count as seen on the Daily chart below shows there is still room for one more low. A lot, I think, depends on how the upcoming tariff deals (not only with the EU) and the resolution of this whole drama will impact the USD. Also, how will it impact the FED? I don’t think the answer to this will reveal itself already on Wednesday as Powell & co. probably will keep its cautious stance.

While I’m not ready to buy it right here, the criteria are pretty simple. A close above 0.8064 or a push below the last low at 0.7872, preferring the latter scenario. Exactly where is hard to say in advance as the Swissy tends to move forcefully to the downside and the stop suddenly before turning around. That’s the scenario I would watch and look for tendencies of exhaustion.

OK I will wrap it there as the market soon will open and while still a bit “sleepy” after holiday I hope to be back with more soon.

So with serious talk going on between US & China and with rumors of other deals as well being close, it make sense to look at where the strongest impact in the currency space may come? Yes, it will certainly benefit currencies that get deals first but that may not be where it will be most visible, indeed.

I think the biggest “looser” can be CHF if deals start to take form to the left and right. Not just because of sentiment, but if we look at the technical picture that the Monthly CHF basket chart paints, there is really a potential of lots of room to the downside.

Especially, this will be the case if the latest and steeper channel up breaks to the downside, then it would be natural for price to seek out the bottom of the larger rising base channel. Converted to pips in other pairs, I think we could be talking about thousands of them, and yes the plural “s” tacked on there is absolutely intentional.

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One counterpart, where I think a deal is very probable as one of the first, is Canada and the CAD. I have already posted the weekly in my weekly report, but OK let’s do the Monthly here as well.

It’s a very different chart, but do have one thing in common with the CHF, a significantly marked bottom in contrast to the same for the Swissy, except for it being a top there. Furthermore, it also has a lot of technical room for price to move, but to the upside. Still waiting for it to break the upper trendline of the Ending Diagonal, but that’s exactly what a deal will accomplish. So, how does this transpire in the CADCHF chart?

I like to start with a monthly, without any EW count labels or anything, except for a trendline from the highest power candle (not necessarily the highest) to a significant low and use it as a power gauge - as long as that low holds. It didn’t work with the August candle last year and that low is of course the first main resistance that has to be teared down.

That level was already tested once back in May, without success, and not it looks as if it gearing up for another attempt. BTW, I have tacked on a count here, basically to show that there is no way to count whole sequence from 2022 high as an impulse in 5 waves (or a variation there of). The count here doesn’t mean much though, and is expected because CHF is a defensive currency into the bone.

What we need to be looking for instead, is an Impulse set in motion by CAD and we can’t see anything of that yet. Not in a clear way anyhow. IF there will be a deal, then I’m sure it will come and the resistance will give in - but we are not there yet. Until then, we need to be patient and maybe work on a plan.

Well, my plan is already in place. Of course, a bit depending on how the news will come about, but a close above that horizontal trendline is a must, preferably on the weekly chart. A test of the 0.6100/20 zone and drop back to resistance to find out if it has turned support. Then I like to buy for the long hold.

I posted a weekly EURUSD chart on X the past Friday, just ahead of NFP, with a new (to me at least) count that jumped at me when looking at the pair for the first time in weeks. I didn’t want to wait until after as I liked what I saw in that moment and didn’t want NFP to influence my view. However, well aware of the potential of the data to affect the chart, short term at least, I refrained from zooming in on the count.

With the facts in hand, I can say it didn’t really change much, except for reducing the likelihood of price to move higher from here. The point I like to make is that it doesn’t really matter if the data is good or bad, in terms of how it may impact price. We can never know for sure, in advance, if the market participants think that “good” data also is good for price and many times that isn’t the case.

This time, however, the better than expected NFP voted in favor of a stronger USD, but the question if course “how long will it last?” and the clear answer is that no one knows. The structure gives some hints though, which is better envisioned on the Daily time frame.

First of all, the wave up since the January low is not to be counted as 5 waves as I see it. There is indeed more than one way to count it, which often is the case and something that tends to confuse new EW students, but I don’t see 5 clear waves being one of them. I use the AO indicator to help me with this matter and it rarely turns out to be wrong.

AO supports the conclusion that the high is either a wave 3 (of some degree) or wave C, but if it is the latter then we would have to recount the whole batch preceding it since years ago. That doesn’t make sense to me, but what makes sense is to become clear of the alternatives ahead.

A wave 4 (as circled iv on the chart) is expected, but so far it’s not clear where to mark the end of that wave. Indeed, there are three possibilities, but maybe just two. These two are either a triangle (which I hold as most likely), or a flat with a deeper drop into wave c, below the last nearby low.

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The third choice would be that wave 4 already is in place with the 12 May low, but there are problems with this view. It would require a 5 waves rise from that low, and there are indeed a 5 waves structure but it doesn’t come without overlaps. It doesn’t mean that price couldn’t go higher from here but the structural overlap is a sign that’s less likely and indeed signals that the correction still is ongoing.

Still, a move higher is expect, once the correction is completed. So, let’s now turn to each FX-Basket of this duo to see if we can find support for this view, starting with the Euro.

The Euro made a low in 2012, after 5 waves down from the high. After 5 waves, there should be a 3 waves correction as a minimum, but the keyword here is really correction and from a look of the structure correction is written allover it. It don’t mean that price couldn’t go higher though.

Indeed, if we just look at the structure and disregard whether this is a WXYXZ combination or not, the framing of the channel and fib projections of the swings, still gives a hint of where price may like to go. I would say that about 4-600 points higher from here i.e. from 112-ish to 116-118-ish.

A look at the Monthly chart, pretty much confirms this I would say. Price has retraces >50% of wave a high to low, and not only reached but also closed above all swing sighs since wave 4 on the wave down. Even if the May close doesn’t seem that convincing as a red doji candle, it still closed almost 30 points above the highest of those highs.

Of course, the June candle will be of significant importance and if it stays green, and even more if it reaches or better closes above the May high, that would seriously open up the path to realize the targets mentioned above. So what does the USD side of the coin say then?

The USD made a cycle low about a year ahead of EUR, in August 2011, and it’s kind of interesting that the two currencies cycles are aligned in such a way, due to the fact that we tend to see them as opposites in the battle of pips. Nothing could be further from the truth tough.

Could it then possibly make sense that the Greenback already has reached its cycle peak while the Euro still has a last leg to complete before reaching there? Well, that’s in principle what this USD count implies. Up until not so long ago I didn’t believe this to be the case and that $US Dollar still had one more high to meet, but failure on the last high more and more has come to speak against that view.

The observant one will notice one thing though… I have market the current structure from the high as an ABC correction and not an Impulse. Why? It’s no mystery, really, because… after 5 waves, the basic rule is to make an assumption of minimum 3 waves to follow and only thereafter can a decision be made, if there still is one more higher degree to come in a continuation or if price is to break down/up in an impulsive fashion. On top of that, rule 2: Never count out the US Dollar or at least not as long as it hasn’t been dethroned as the King of currencies.

Now, having a look at Daily there are a few things to notice. First of all, I’m not really satisfied with my count here, from the high of 5/(C)/B and down. It’s a tricky structure that indeed can be counted in several ways and this is more of a “work in progress” count that rests on the assumption there will be 5 waves down.

I don’t see anything speaking against it and still think it will be the case, just not sure of its form yet. Like wave 3 is pretty clear as a 3, but it can as well turn out to be (3), or even 3 of (1) - we just don’t know yet. AO is of tremendous help here though, signaling there will very likely be more short term recovery from here. May even reach as high as marked wave 4, but can as well stop at the first nearby high.

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Essentially, we don’t know yet if this still is wave 4 or circled wave ii, but in both cases there should be more downside to follow. To counter this and awake hope of a reversal towards higher prices, the high of wave 2 needs to be taken out, and probably also wave (2) and all in the same candle.

So where does this leave us on the Monthly chart and what can it tell about the direction and distance of EURUSD going forward?

If we do the same here, disregarding the count as such and just look at the structure, focusing on the framing by the channel and Fib projections, a few things can be singled out. Still sticking with the concept of an ABC, it appears USD still has about 500 points/pips to lose before reaching equal length on wave A & C as well as reaching bottom of the channel.

This level also coincides with the 61.8% Fib of wave V, while a breakage of that level would target the low of wave IV, which would expand wave C to 1.618x of wave A, but of course… at that point we may have to start thinking about it as wave 3 rather than wave C.

Of course, I have to close now with EURUSD monthly, and I will not draw any projections here, just drop out the count labels for both a 3 and 5 waves structure from the Sep-22 low, then do the math: USD -500 minimum, possibly -1500 of wave IV is targetted, and EUR +400-600 something. Then a return to 1.40, at some point, doesn’t appear unrealistic and 1.20-1.25 quite probable.

From an EW perspective, it’s not really clear where GBPCHF is right now. While the move from the bottom looked impulsive and promising, it has kinda lost it by now looking overall corrective, but it also doesn’t look like a new impulsive wave lower is setting up - which brings an Elliottwave analyst into something of uncharted waters.

The bad thing is that the last low knocked out all the previous ones following the 2022 low, which makes it the only contender as a wave 2 if the Oct-22 high is to be marked as wave 1. That’s too much sideways IMO so what’s left is to mark it as a complex correction instead, and if it later will come to charge higher, taking on an impulsive outfit, I will deal with that then. Which brings me back to the Pitchfork.

The beauty with this tool is that it has 4 styles or “modes”, which have been developed over the years. The original name is Andrew’s Pitchfork after it’s original inventor Alan Andrew. That’s what usually is called the “Original” mode and is a rather strait forward channel created from its 3 anchor points as seen in the weekly chart above.

AFAIK there are no clear rules regarding where to peg the anchor points and I have many times seen it used without pegging the shaft end at all, and just align it somehow with the structure. I guess this is ok as long as one is aware of ones meaning with doing it this way. That’s not my way though, and to trow away some of its brilliance in my opinion. I don’t think it’s wrong through, as long as what I said above is true.

I think that attaching the anchor points to the structure, puts in in contact and energizes its mathematical magic, which only comes to appear if used not as 4 separate forks but as one.

The chart above utilizes the so called Schiff style, after it’s inventor Jerome Schiff who “came to Andrews with a hypothesis that in many cases, when the price is in a shallow up or down trend, the pitchfork is to steep. So Schiff devised a manner by which the fork could be made to predict a more shallow path.” (fr. babypips.com).

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While this indeed is a whole new approach and different channel, it’s still a progression from the original and they each gives individual indication, but still works together as a whole.

The “Modified Schiff” style is an interesting one, and I’m not sure where it came from, if it was Schiff himself who developed his original findings or not. What it does, in a visible way, is that it anchors the centre line halfway between the 1st and 2nd anchor points and creates the channel from there based on point 2 and 3.

In a sense this is a step back from the original Schiff style towards Andrews original style. Now, sometimes this falls very close to the clean Schiff application and sometimes not, as it very much depends on the angle or how steep the first move has been as it sets the tune.

Then there is also the “Inside style”, which once again I am unsure of its origin. It’s again gives a different picture and message about the structure, new levels, but they all tie it together to give the ground work to forma an opinion of what’s going on.

When I said earlier that there are no clear rules of the game, that’s not entirely true, of course. My point with saying this and give an example outside of my own way of use, is to suggest that, as with any tool, you need to figure out the best way to use it that works for you. That takes practice and nothing I can easily describe here.

One example o this e.g. is that I don’t always start from the very bottom of a structure, as demonstrated in the GBPUSD chart above. This may not be the best example though as there is a very nice pin tail to the low, which naturally is an attractive anchor point. However, it shows what I am looking for when doing this, a clear lonesome pin followed by a strong/explosive move i.e. a fat bodied candle.

Turning back to GBPCHF, it’s just up to test the Liberation gap, which indeed now has been closed (i.e. overlapped) and this pair absolutely is at a critical junction here. Break above and continue to reform the liberation or fall apart. Just look how the centre line of this Daily fork plays a crucial role here, after having worked as support a multitude of times, before the gap broke it, and not it works as resistance.

However, the Pound is perky today though and doesn’t shy the line of Gold platted CHF bulls lined up and has indeed already broken through their defenses. Now it need to stay above that line, but not be caught in the gap for too long. If that holds true, we got to love the Sterling as well going forward.

V.

The monthly chart below gives a very clear picture of how GBPUSD has come down from the distant highs made back in the 1970-80ies, in 3 waves. In fact, that first circled wave a, is in 3 as well, origination from a high back in 1972 at 2.644 - not visible on this chart though.

There are a few important thing we can get out of this chart, apart from the overall structure made in 3 waves. The Sep-22 low, which has to be an All Times Low, looks better than the one made back in 1985. Not just because it bested history with about 100 pips, but also because it left behind a nearly 800 pips tail, compared to the near 400 back then.

It also shows double divergence on the waves (III) & (V) troughs, compared to the bare bar divergence from back in the eighties (of what we can see). What doesn’t match up in the same positive way though is the angle of the advance from that 2022 supposed bottom.

While it could be seen on Monthly already, the weekly chart above shows it with more clarity, how the pair is at a very important junction testing the last high to the left, which if breaks opens the path up to the 1.40 region and a test of the previous wave (IV).

That the weekly count here, and the price structure, makes clear is that while the nearby test of high is important, or right of crucial, it is the next one that probably occupy the minds of both bulls and bears. That’s where the great battle most likely is to take place.

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A rejection at that level will leave no small consequences behind on the battlefield and could outright challenge the 2022 low in due time. So are there any signs already whether that battle of evermore come 1.40 will come to take place? I think there is.

While it’s too early to judge if the current structure from the low up is just an ABC correction or the beginning of a 5 waves impulse, we can count 5 subwaves on the last rise up from the 1.20995 low back in January. That is indeed a good sign of more to come, even if wave (B) isn’t concurred here and now.

The question though, has wave 5 completed here and couldn’t this indeed be wave (5) and the whole corrective cycle completed? Possibly, but not likely in my view. Even if we recounted it to have it be a more complex WXY structure, there would still be a last wave missing on the upside, but that’s not my main count.

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Stepping down to the 4h chart to get more clarity of the current, short term, situation, there are clear signs that wave 5 hasn’t completed yet and the chances are high that we eventually will get a Daily close above the 1.34343 level, which is exactly what we should be looking for.

Yes, we could trade this last part up, if not already in, but the really lucrative buy would come after a larger correction following the close of wave 5 above the Sep-24 high.

If you want to trade it here, I would only do that if we get a further correction back down into the 1.32 area. I would not trade a break above the last or 1.34343 high as there is no way to tell how far it would go thereafter. It could be 20 or 200 pips or the break could simply be fake and fail. In other words, the risk of a loss is too high, compared to the prospected gains.

Ok, I will leave it there. I have set my alerts and will be back on this if or when it becomes current.

The case for a new low

The price structure below, in the 1st chart, goes back all the way to 1978 even though we know there was no Euro at the time. So up until 2000 we are really looking at the DDMCHF pair, where DDM stands for Deutsche D-Mark.

It might be questionable whether it’s valid to merge it all together like this to count and honestly, I have no idea if it’s only the D-mark used or if also other of its historic currencies predating the Euro is part of the equation too. Anyway, I have solved the above dilemma here by simply putting everything ahead of the official Euro release into the first wave. It makes sense to me in this count at least.

Now, this count is a strange baby but the idea here is that the final low could still wait ahead. I think the odds for this is quite low, but can’t be excluded. It would probably take a really sour risk sentiment, spinning around an epicenter of the Euro zone. After all, it’s just a count but the fact that it can be counted like this in a valid way, makes a point I think. If it would become current, then I would bother with looking closer on Daily time frame but not now.

Lets say the bottom is in - for now at least

Next count takes another approach, with an adjusted Leading Diagonal completing on the Oct-08 low, to mark it as wave (I). It’s not really visible on this compressed weekly chart but there are indeed 5 subwaves down in wave V.

This creates a reasonable wave (III) & (IV) and a final drop into wave (V) on that day in 2015 when the SNB opened the trapdoor in the EURCHF 1.20 floor. The question now is what will come next, what has unfolded since?

The natural flow of EW is that a 3 waves correction will follow after 5 down/up, or… Well, an in depth discussion of that is for another text but short answer is that we don’t need to bother about this now. If the next wave is in 5, it can still part of the following 3 waves (which is the minimum) and it could theoretically turn into 5. In such case, that’s what happens and we simply remark/adjust.

We can conclude one thing though, as long as price stays below the end of wave (IV), i.e. 1.26496, it’s correct to look at this as just a correction when counting. Be it an ABC as in the chart or if we need to remark it as WXY. This may depend on if we get subwave sequences of 5 up from here or not.

A Daily correction

On Daily, I will not bother with wave a here as it doesn’t matter if it is in 3 or 5 waves, but wave b is important as we want to know if it still is a correction or possibly 5 waves down i.e. an impulse?

From what I can see, both regarding the angle and the observation that it has happened in 7 smaller swings, so far, this is a correction. I also find it best counted as a more complex WXYXZ combination, even if it could as well be counted in an even more complex set of WXY parts. These 2X as I call them is a bit rare but should definitively be used when they fit.

If price made yet another low here, that would of course upset things but not necessarily change the overall count. For the moment, I think that is irrelevant and I will instead zoom in on the last wave down to confirm that it really has 5 sub waves for (C). Then I will look at what has transpired from the bottom and see how we can trade this.

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I think this has reached levels that are beyond reason, which makes CHF’s value to be grossly out of balance and it needs to move back to a more balanced position. This appreciation over time is most visible in the CHF Basket, which I have written about separately.

Of course, I know the market isn’t always a great follower of logic and understand there are something else going on here as well, but the Swiss economy comparison to most others is really small and doesn’t have the naturally capacity to create, hold and nurture this kind of value/money that is accumulated.

Anyway, as seen on the 1st count of NZDCHF, projected on to the weekly chart, this pair is technically still in a down trend. In contrast to GBPCHF, which I looked at earlier, we are yet to see a pattern of Higher Highs and Higher Lows forming. We do have a first HL, which is a start, but without a HH it’s practically worth nothing.

The count projects an Ending Diagonal, from the 2007 high, all the way down to the 2024 low, which potentially could be the final low. This count isn’t my personal favorite, but due to all the overlaps it’s the only one that can be marked up with 5 main waves down in what could be called an Impulse. Although, a diagonal isn’t truly an impulse.

However, what’s of interest here is if this count brings us to a natural closure of the last wave at the low, to open up the gateway for a reversal. Let’s get more detail or the last wave on the Daily chart.

A Diagonal consists of 5 corrective waves, so it’s not really an impulse, just a 5 waves sequence. What’s right about this diagonal is that all sub waves really are choppy and overlapping, as a correction should be. Wave V certainly has a lot of this and is so complex that it has to be counted as a WXY combination.

The sub count above seems to flow out fine to cause a natural ending to the diagonal, even if I’m not totally happy with the first (B)-wave. However, I have tried other combination and truth told there isn’t any perfect one, not even to give a new low based on this formation. So this is the best there is, for the diagonal.

The 2nd count

In this count I have marked up the structure as a large ABC correction instead, but with a smaller version of the ED returning as wave C.

I like this count better but wave (5) of the ED would still present us with the same problem as in the previous one. For that reason I won’t bother to present a Daily chart here, as it would be the same. I’m still keeping track on this one though, and it’s a good sign with the possibility of two counts that trace out to the same end point.

The 3rd count

This is my favorite count of NZDCHF and the one I use to plan future trades. So let’s discuss it in more detail.

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In the 1st count, the structure up from the low is assumed to be an impulse of larger degree. I have marked the 1st wave up as Supercycle wave (I) but I would like to point out that the degree level as such could come to change depending on how the whole structure completes further into the (unknown) future.

Wave (II) is then traced out over a period of 15 months, compared to 1 months for wave (I) and this is indeed a red flag. I have a general rule or guidline that wave 2 shouldn’t take up more time space than 1.618x of wave 1, although sometimes there can be cause for exception.

In this case wave (I) was very fast, which often results in a need for a longer time correction. Although 15x is a bit of a strech. So, just for this reason this isn’t my favorite count so to speak, but as long as it plays out and doesn’t get invalidated I like to keep it around, because… it’s the outright most bullish scenario and in the end it could be the only one left standing.

In the 2nd count, I don’t look at the price action from bottom up as an impulse but a 3 waves ABC correction, which is what normally follows an impulse (according to the EW wave template). If the waves are of the same degree, that is. I have chosen different degree symbols here, simply because I find them more visibly appealing but it doesn’t really matter. As long as you know where you are…

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A monthly chart makes more sense over a longer time period. I run several such counts of DXY because it’s the nature of the $Dollar that it can take many shapes, reacting positively or negatively to different events like no other currency can. Below is my most bearish count, which would see DXY at around 60 by 2030 give and take.

The beauty with this count, or risk if you so like, is that the last wave up is B-wave, which means that we can’t be certain that the high is in place as long as price hasn’t dropped below the start of said wave.

One way to accomplish a count with a new high would be to move X one low to the right and we create the expectation of the current wave to aim for 120 or so. Welcome to the trickiness of Elliott Wave and corrections!

One of these counts will probably play out, but there are indeed other ways to count this structure. Here is one that takes the view of a 5 wave impulse up from the 2008 low.

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That’s a tricky question but let’s count on it. Of course, the overview above is great in itself and gives a good picture of how the big waves has played out down to what looks like a pin candle bottom. But let’s zoom in on that…

Yes, that looks like a valid Ending Diagonal, indeed, ending Cycle wave V of Super Cycle (C) - that gotta be a bottom, right? Okay, it doesn’t look very impulsive after that bottom, agreed, or so it appears, but wait… That’s probably because look at it in comparison to the giant wave down. On a closer look, though…

Weekly

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If we assume the pair made a final low in September 2022, then the structure from the 2008 high makes a perfect WXYXZ complex combination in a Super Cycle wave (b) correction. In such case, next wave up has to be a wave 1 impulse or we would have to get creative and figure out somethings else if sticking to Elliottwave. We can certainly see one large wave up, but is it in 5 sub waves and is it completed? Unfortunately, the monthly chart doesn’t provide such granularity so we need to go lower on time frame to find out.

Before we do this, it’s important to acknowledge that the monthly candle hasn’t closed yet. Thus, despite it looks very strong today there is no guaranty that it will close like that, but if it all holds true… If we are in an impulse making 5 waves up, then we could see price back up again in the 1.60 region (or higher), in due time. It would probably take some years but using wave (a) as a template seems like a reasonable idea i.e. 6-10 years maybe.

Weekly Chart

Weekly shows what looks like a solid wave up to the high but is it a 5 waves impulse? In my view, as Daily also will clarify, it’s not and it can indeed be seen here but in a not very obvious way; The price action unfolding after the high, first a sharp drop then it looks like contracting into a triangle. Thus, sticking to EW rules it can only be either wave A or 3 at the high, with the triangle unfolding as wave 4 or B. Of course, the triangle drama is only true as long as price doesn’t breach the second high at 1.1140.

There is another tell, though, which gives an impulsive indication, even if the current high is that completed impulse. Look at and compare the structure on the way down to the left and the way up on the right. That should give comfort to the bull, even if we can fit in a completed 5 waves structure on the wave’s high. Let’s look at Daily for a yet detailed picture.

Daily Chart

So the Daily makes it crystal clear to me that the current high is either wave 3 or A and what will transpire next is to decide which of them. I have to say that I’m divided here; The larger structure calls for a bottom in place and that we now are in a 5 waves impulse up – and there is nothing that conflicts with that. However, if it doesn’t complete as a triangle here and then move higher, it would look more like a wave B to me than a 4, simply because the correction would proportionally be too drawn out.

Therefore, I would like to see USD making a last push lower into wave (E) and then a strong move up, out of the triangle and tope somewhere between 1.15-1.18 before a deeper correction into wave II. However, I don’t pretend to know what will come next, today Euro is strong or USD weak but it may change tomorrow.  I don’t like to chase it here.

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An extended move higher from here breaching 1.1140 could paradoxically enough mean we will only get a 3 waves structure, even if price move higher after  the correction, but no 1.60, maybe 1.20/25 at best. I’ll keep track of lower time frames for any signals to post and update this bigger picture view as things transpire.